Independent Schools Lose More Than 22,000 Pupils as New DfE Census Reveals Sharpest Decline in Sixth Form

The independent-school sector has lost more than 22,000 pupils in a single year, according to newly published Department for Education census figures, with pupil numbers falling by 3.8% and market share dropping to its lowest level in recent years.

The latest data show that independent-school enrolment fell from 582,477 pupils in 2024-25 to 560,256 in 2025-26 – a decline of 22,221 pupils. During the same period, the overall pupil population across England fell by 1.2%, meaning the independent sector’s decline significantly outpaced wider demographic changes.

As a result, the independent sector’s share of all pupils fell from 6.45% to 6.28%, representing a decline of 0.17 percentage points.

Sixth Form Sees Sharpest Market Share Losses

While the largest absolute reduction in pupil numbers occurred among primary-age children, the most significant market-share deterioration was recorded among sixth-form students.

Analysis of age-band data shows that pupils aged 16 to 18 experienced the steepest decline in independent-school participation, with market share falling by 0.77 percentage points. Early years and nursery provision also weakened, suggesting pressure at both ends of the independent-school pipeline.

The findings may raise concerns among school leaders about parental affordability and retention rates at key transition points, particularly as families make decisions about sixth-form education.

Mainstream Independent Schools Bear the Brunt

The decline has not been evenly distributed across the sector.

Mainstream independent schools accounted for virtually all of the losses, with pupil numbers in the main “other independent schools” category falling by 27,322 pupils, a 5% reduction year-on-year.

In contrast, independent special schools continued to expand. Other independent special schools increased enrolment by 5,100 pupils, representing growth of almost 16%, while non-maintained special schools recorded a smaller increase of 154 pupils.

The figures suggest that demand for specialist provision remains strong despite broader contraction across the sector.

Regional Declines Across England

Every region of England recorded a fall in independent-school pupil numbers.

The most significant losses in market share were concentrated in the South East, London and the East of England, areas that have traditionally represented some of the strongest markets for independent education.

The widespread nature of the decline indicates that the reduction is not confined to a small number of local markets but reflects a national trend.

Boarding Schools Hit Harder Than Day Schools

Boarding schools experienced a sharper fall in enrolment than non-boarding schools.

Schools with recorded boarders saw pupil numbers decline by 10,993, a reduction of 5.4%, compared with a 3.0% fall among schools with no recorded boarders.

The number of recorded boarders fell by 5,613 during the year, adding to concerns about the long-term recovery of boarding provision.

The number of schools reporting boarders also fell from 455 to 442.

Sector Faces Continuing Pressure

The latest census provides the clearest evidence yet of a significant contraction in mainstream independent education.

Although falling birth rates have contributed to lower pupil numbers nationally, the independent sector’s decline has been more than three times faster than the overall fall in England’s school-age population.

With losses concentrated in mainstream provision, sixth forms and boarding schools, the data is likely to intensify debate about affordability, taxation and future demand within the independent-school sector.

At the same time, continued growth in independent special schools highlights the increasingly divergent fortunes of different parts of the market, suggesting that specialist provision remains a notable area of resilience.

What does the latest census mean for your school?

The 2025-26 DfE census confirms that the independent sector is entering a period of significant change, with pupil losses concentrated in mainstream provision, sixth forms and boarding schools. Understanding how your school’s performance compares with national, regional and local market trends has never been more important.

MTM’s market intelligence and benchmarking services help school leaders identify emerging risks, uncover growth opportunities and make data-driven strategic decisions.

Contact MTM to discuss how the latest census findings could affect your school and request a bespoke market analysis. You can call us on 01502 722787 or use our Contact Form below to get in touch.