Turning Decline into Growth: How Evidence-Based Strategy and Data Insight Can Rebuild Pupil Admissions

Over the past five years, many independent and maintained schools have seen pupil numbers fall. Shifting demographics, increased competition, and evolving parent expectations have reshaped the education landscape.

While this presents a challenge, it also offers an opportunity: to rethink how your school uses evidence and insight to drive strategy. Decisions based on assumptions or anecdotal trends are no longer enough. In 2025 and beyond, the schools that thrive will be those that use data-led insight to guide every strategic move — from marketing and admissions to pricing, positioning, and growth.

Why an Evidence-Based Strategy Matters More Than Ever

An evidence-based strategy for schools brings clarity to complex challenges. It allows leadership teams to understand what’s really happening in their market, who their competitors are, what parents value most, and how to communicate that value effectively.

Without robust evidence, schools risk focusing on the wrong priorities — investing in facilities that don’t influence admissions, targeting families who are unlikely to convert, or setting fees misaligned with market expectations.

By grounding your strategy in data, you can:

• Identify the real drivers of admissions in your local market
• Understand how your school is perceived by parents and prospects
• Refine your value proposition and messaging
• Align your marketing, admissions and pricing strategy for growth.

Using Data Insight to Increase Pupil Enrolment

Schools that succeed in increasing pupil enrolment through data insight take a holistic view — combining quantitative data with qualitative understanding to guide confident decision-making.

At MTM Consulting, we’ve developed tools and consultancy services designed to do exactly that:

MTM 360: Complete Market and School Insight

ISBA’s David Woodgate has repeatedly reinforced that data must sit at the heart of strategic decision-making and MTM 360 brings together every layer of market intelligence you need to inform strategic planning. It provides detailed demographic analysis, competitor benchmarking, and future population projections to show where opportunities lie and where potential risks may emerge.

With MTM 360, schools can:

• Map catchment areas with precision, with the option to include fee sensitivity
• Identify growth potential and capacity gaps
• Understand market positioning relative to competitors
• Make evidence-based decisions about marketing, pricing and investment.

Surveys: Listening to Families and Stakeholders

Your current and prospective families hold valuable insight into your school’s reputation, appeal, and opportunities for improvement.

Our Qualitative Insights Surveys help you uncover what parents truly think — and why they choose (or don’t choose) your school. These findings go beyond satisfaction levels to reveal the emotional and practical factors that drive decisions, giving your admissions and marketing teams the clarity they need to refine strategy. On one of our recent webinars, Amit Mehta from Inspired Learning Group, told us that stakeholder surveys are the first thing that they do when taking on a new school, as it shows you what needs addressing.

Strategic Consultancy: Turning Data Into Action

Data alone isn’t enough, it’s how you interpret and act on it that matters.

Through MTM’s Strategic Consultancy, our experienced team helps Heads, Bursars, and Governors translate data into a clear, actionable plan. Whether your goal is recovery, reinvention, or growth, we work alongside your leadership team to build a strategy that’s realistic, measurable, and sustainable.

A Call to Act – Before Decline Becomes the New Normal

Pupil decline rarely happens overnight, it builds quietly over time. But every year without action makes recovery harder.

Now is the time to take a data-driven look at your position, your potential, and your priorities. With the right evidence, insight, and strategy, schools can not only reverse decline but build stronger, more resilient futures.

If your numbers have fallen and you’re ready to change course, MTM can help you see clearly and plan confidently.

Find out how we can help: Contact the MTM Strategy Team