Using Data to Evaluate the Viability of a New Sixth Form

Opening a sixth form can look like an obvious next step for a school currently operating without one.

It can strengthen pupil retention, provide greater continuity through to 18, create a broader educational offer and potentially strengthen the school’s overall financial position. For some schools, it can also be an important part of their long-term strategy.

But a sixth form is a significant investment, and having a Year 11 cohort does not automatically mean there is sufficient demand for a successful post-16 provision.

The key question for governors and senior leaders is therefore not simply “Could we open a sixth form?” but “Is there a sufficiently strong market to make one viable?”

That requires more than a financial forecast. A robust sixth form viability analysis should bring together pupil data, demographic trends, competitor intelligence, curriculum demand and financial modelling to build a realistic picture of the opportunity.

Start with the pupils you already have

For a school considering a sixth form, the most obvious source of potential students is its existing Year 11 cohort. But how many of those pupils would actually stay?

This is where schools need to be careful. It is easy to look at a cohort of, say, 100 Year 11 pupils and assume that a significant proportion will remain for Years 12 and 13. In reality, many pupils may already have plans to move elsewhere.

Historical destination data can tell you a great deal. Where do pupils currently go after Year 11? Do they move to another independent school, a grammar school, a college or a specialist provider? How many leave the area altogether? Are there particular subjects or types of provision they are seeking elsewhere?

If pupils are consistently leaving because they want a wider choice of A-level subjects, for example, a new sixth form may have an opportunity to retain them. If they are leaving because they want vocational courses or a much larger college environment, simply creating a sixth form may not address the reason they are moving.

It is therefore important to distinguish between pupils who could stay and pupils who would choose to stay and that distinction should sit at the heart of the viability assessment.

Don’t assume parents will automatically choose you

The same applies to parents.

A school may have strong relationships with families through the senior school, but the decision at 16 can be very different from the decision to join at 11.

For some families, sixth form is the point at which they actively reconsider their options. They may want a fresh start, a larger social environment, different subjects, stronger university preparation or a particular academic specialism.

Talking to current pupils and parents can therefore be one of the most valuable parts of the process. Rather than simply asking whether they would be interested in a sixth form, schools should explore what would actually influence their decision.

What subjects would pupils want to study? What would make them stay? What might make them leave? How important are facilities, careers advice, enrichment and university preparation? Would they prefer a smaller sixth form where they know the staff, or a larger environment with more choice?

This type of research can challenge assumptions before the school commits significant resources.

Look beyond your own school

A viable sixth form may need to recruit externally.

That means the potential market is much larger than your current Year 11 cohort, but so is the competition.

A proper demand analysis for post-16 education should examine the wider population of 16- to 18-year-olds within a realistic catchment and how that population is expected to change.

Demographic data can show whether the number of young people is growing, stable or declining. Housing developments may create new sources of demand, while population changes elsewhere could reduce the available market.

The geography matters too. Your sixth form catchment may be quite different from the catchment for your existing school. At 16, students may be prepared to travel further for the right course or sixth form experience. Equally, transport can become a significant barrier if the school is difficult to reach.

Mapping existing pupils, potential students and competitor provision can therefore help establish how large the realistic market really is.

Understand the competition

A new sixth form doesn’t enter an empty market.

Depending on the area, students may already have access to sixth forms at independent schools, selective schools, academies, colleges and other post-16 providers. Understanding those alternatives is essential.

But competitor analysis shouldn’t simply be a comparison of published results and A-level subject lists. Schools need to understand the proposition each competitor is offering.

What subjects do they provide? How large are their sixth forms? What are their entry requirements? What do their destinations look like? What facilities and enrichment do they offer? How strong is their careers provision? What does their marketing say about the student experience? And perhaps most importantly: why are students choosing them?

This can reveal both threats and opportunities. A local sixth form might have very strong academic results but limited subject choice. Another may offer a huge range of vocational options but a very different student experience. A new sixth form could potentially occupy an attractive position between the two.

Alternatively, the analysis might show that the local market is already extremely well served and that a new sixth form would struggle to differentiate itself.

Both conclusions are useful.

Curriculum demand can make or break the model

One of the more difficult decisions is deciding what the sixth form will actually offer.

There is a natural temptation to provide a broad curriculum. Students want choice and parents expect a credible range of subjects. But every subject has financial implications.

A subject attracting five students may be educationally desirable but difficult to justify if it requires a dedicated teacher. Conversely, offering too few subjects could make the sixth form unattractive to prospective students.

This is where subject-level demand modelling becomes important.

Rather than deciding the curriculum first and trying to recruit students afterwards, schools can use research to understand what pupils are actually likely to choose.

That allows the school to model different scenarios. What happens if 15 students choose a particular subject? What happens if only six do? Which subjects are likely to act as the core of the sixth form, and where might partnerships or alternative delivery models be appropriate?

The curriculum therefore needs to be both educationally credible and financially realistic.

Build a financial model around different outcomes

The financial case for a new sixth form is often where the assumptions become most important.

How many students are needed to break even? How quickly could that number realistically be reached? What additional staffing will be required? Will existing buildings be sufficient? What investment is needed in specialist facilities?

And what happens if recruitment is lower than expected? A useful model shouldn’t produce one answer. It should test several.

A conservative scenario might assume relatively low internal retention and limited external recruitment. A central scenario could reflect the school’s most realistic expectations. A growth scenario might assume strong retention and successful recruitment from other schools.

The point isn’t to predict the future perfectly. It is to understand the consequences of being wrong. For governors, this is a much more useful conversation than simply being presented with a projected sixth form income figure.

A forecast showing that the sixth form will eventually make a contribution may look attractive. But if that assumes 100 students within three years and the school needs only 50 to break even, the real question is whether 100 is a realistic target.

Consider the break-even point

The break-even calculation needs to include the full cost of the sixth form.

That means looking beyond teaching salaries to consider leadership, administration, student support, facilities, IT, resources, marketing and other additional costs. Some costs will already be part of the school’s existing structure, while others will be genuinely incremental.

Accommodation is a good example. If the school has spare capacity, the physical cost of opening a sixth form may be relatively modest. If new buildings are required, the financial case looks very different.

The same applies to staffing. A sixth form may be able to share some teaching capacity with the senior school, but there will still be minimum staffing requirements and potentially additional leadership and administrative responsibilities.

Understanding the break-even point allows governors to ask how realistic is it that we will recruit enough students to reach it?

Think about what the sixth form does for the whole school

The case for a sixth form isn’t necessarily limited to its direct financial contribution.

There may be significant strategic benefits.

A strong sixth form could improve retention at 16, strengthen the school’s overall proposition and provide a more complete educational journey. It may also help attract families at younger entry points who value the opportunity for their children to remain at the school through to 18.

There could be benefits for staffing, university relationships, careers provision and the school’s reputation.

But the opposite can also be true.

If a sixth form consistently operates with low numbers, it may consume resources that could be better invested elsewhere. A weak sixth form proposition could also affect the school’s reputation rather than strengthen it.

This is why the decision needs to be considered as part of the school’s wider strategy rather than as a standalone expansion project.

Use data to test the proposition

By this stage, the school should be able to answer a much more useful set of questions.

• Is there enough demand?
• Where will the students come from?
• How many are likely to stay from Year 11?
• How many could realistically be recruited externally?
• What subjects do they want?
• Who are they currently choosing instead?
• What will it cost to deliver the curriculum?
• How many students are needed to break even?
• And what happens if recruitment is lower than expected?

The answers should come from different sources rather than one dataset.

Pupil and parent research provides insight into motivation and decision-making. Demographic analysis shows the potential size of the market. Competitor research establishes the alternatives available. Admissions and destination data shows what is happening now. Financial modelling tests what different recruitment levels mean for the school.

Together, these provide a much more rounded assessment.

A sixth form should be a strategic decision, not an assumption

There can be very good reasons for a school to open a sixth form.

But there can also be very good reasons not to.

The important thing is that governors and senior leaders have enough information to distinguish between the two.

A sixth form viability analysis should not be designed simply to prove that a proposed sixth form can work. It should be designed to test whether it can work and under what conditions.

That means challenging assumptions, testing different scenarios and being prepared to change the proposition if the data suggests the original plan isn’t viable.

At MTM Consulting, we help schools assess potential expansion and new provision through market and catchment analysis, demographic data, competitor research, stakeholder research and strategic consultancy.

For a school considering a sixth form, the investment in understanding the market before making the decision is relatively small compared with the cost of getting the decision wrong.

A sixth form can be a powerful addition to a school’s strategy.

But before deciding how to open one, it is worth establishing whether the market is there to support it.