The Confidence Index: One Year On from VAT, How Confident Are Schools Feeling?

Over the past year, the independent school sector has experienced a period of unprecedented scrutiny and change.

Twelve months on from the introduction of VAT on school fees, the landscape remains uncertain. Headlines about school closures, mergers and restructuring have become increasingly common. At the same time, rising costs and shifting parental expectations continue to reshape the recruitment environment.

For many working in marketing and admissions, the central question remains the same:

How confident are we about the future of our schools?

To help answer this, MTM Consulting has launched the 2026 Confidence Index, a sector-wide initiative designed to capture the perspectives of those working most closely with recruitment, marketing and sustainability.

The aim is simple: to provide an honest snapshot of how confident schools are about the future – and what factors are shaping that confidence.

Jump straight to take part in the Confidence Index 2026.

What Last Year’s Confidence Index Revealed

The findings from the 2025 Confidence Index painted a challenging picture.

Only one in three working in marketing and admissions described their market as healthy. Two-thirds lacked confidence in recruiting enough full-fee pupils. Three-quarters were concerned about persuading families to choose the independent route.

At the same time, 85% reported real-term budget pressure.

Taken together, these findings highlighted a significant challenge for the sector: schools face increasing pressure to recruit pupils while operating in a more competitive and cost-sensitive market.

Perhaps most importantly, the research also highlighted the central role of marketing and admissions teams in navigating this landscape.

These teams sit at the intersection of reputation, recruitment and revenue. They are often the first to see shifts in parental behaviour, changes in enquiry patterns and emerging competitive pressures.

Yet despite this strategic role, many marketing and admissions professionals still feel under-resourced or underrepresented in strategic conversations.

A Year of Change

Much has changed since last year’s results were announced.

The impact of VAT continues to be felt across the sector. Some schools have adapted quickly, strengthening their value proposition and refining their recruitment strategies.  Others have faced difficult decisions about sustainability, with a number of closures and mergers attracting national attention.  While headlines often focus on individual schools, they also reflect broader structural pressures within the sector.  Demographic changes, increasing operational costs and heightened parental scrutiny are all shaping the market.

In this environment, understanding how schools feel about the future is more important than ever.

Why the Confidence Index Matters

The Confidence Index provides something that headlines cannot: context.

It offers a way for professionals across the sector to share their experiences and perspectives, building a collective picture of how schools are navigating the current landscape.  The results are not simply a data exercise. They are shared with Heads, Bursars and Governors, helping ensure that the voices of marketing and admissions professionals are heard at leadership level.  This is particularly important at a time when recruitment strategies, market positioning and communications are becoming central to long-term sustainability.

By contributing to the Confidence Index, participants help highlight:

• recruitment confidence across the sector
• the pressures facing marketing and admissions teams
• the resources and tools schools need to succeed
• the strategic importance of marketing in school leadership

In doing so, the survey helps strengthen understanding between marketing teams and senior leadership.

Championing Marketing and Admissions

For many schools, marketing and admissions functions have evolved significantly in recent years.  What were once seen primarily as administrative roles are now recognised as strategic drivers of enrolment, reputation and financial resilience.

Marketing teams must now understand digital analytics, brand positioning, audience segmentation and data-driven decision-making.  Admissions teams must manage increasingly complex journeys for prospective families while communicating value in a competitive marketplace.

The Confidence Index plays an important role in championing these teams by demonstrating the scale of responsibility they carry – and the support they need to succeed.

Looking Ahead

The next iteration of the Confidence Index will provide an updated picture of how the sector is feeling after another year of change.

• Are schools more confident about recruitment?
• How have marketing and admissions teams adapted?
• What support do they need moving forward?

These are questions that only those working within schools can answer.

By contributing to the survey, professionals across the sector help create a clearer, more informed understanding of the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Have Your Say

The Confidence Index survey takes just a few minutes to complete, but the insights it generates play an important role in shaping conversations across the sector.

The findings will be shared widely with school leaders, governors and sector organisations, ensuring that the experiences of marketing and admissions professionals are represented in discussions about the future of independent education.

Take the Confidence Index 2026 survey here.

Your perspective will help build one of the sector’s most important snapshots of confidence, and the results will be launched at the AMCIS Annual Conference in May.