Will the baby boom continue?

James Leggett, Research Director at mtmconsulting has analysed the population projections of 0-19 year olds to 2037.

Since the late nineties/early noughties, there has been a significant increase in the birth rate. I must confess to contributing to this boom with my pigeon pair! The current evidence is that this has now peaked and indeed the birth rate is reducing, but what does that mean for your school?

Well there’s good news and there is bad news. The bad news is that ONS data shows the birth rate has peaked, however, the good news is that the numbers of 0-4 year olds are projected to continue to grow, just at a reducing rate until 2021. This does vary depending on where you are in the country. The East is already experiencing declining numbers of 0-4 year olds, whilst the South West is projected to see growth until 2021. Numbers are expected to increase again until 2031, with the South West leading the charge, followed by the North East.

However, if we look at the numbers of 0-19 year olds, London is projected to see the strongest growth in total numbers, with 1.3% year on year growth expected until 2022. Unfortunately this picture is not national, with the North East expected to experience declining numbers of 0-19 year olds as soon as 2025, with all areas experiencing a decline by 2031 except London.  London bucks this national trend and is expected to experience growth throughout the period. 

So what does this mean for your school? Nurseries and Prep Schools are likely to feel the impact first, followed by Senior Schools and Sixth Forms. Those schools who have relied on the natural growth of the market to increase numbers will have to rethink their strategy, whilst any school looking to increase market share will have to compete more aggressively against competitors. 

One of the drivers of growth within the independent sector in recent years has been dissatisfaction with state-maintained schools, predominantly through a failure to provide adequate places during the birth rate boom leaving many primary schools overcrowded. This data suggests that this impact will soon be reducing, and indeed the rise of the ‘free school’ movement is likely to create a significant increase in competition for places.

Don’t let your school be left behind – plan for your future now. Call mtm on 01502 722787, or email me (james@ermsolutions.co.uk) to discuss how we can help you be prepared.

mtmconsulting is a brand of Education Market Research Solutions Ltd.