Implications of recent demographic changes for your school

An uncertain economic climate accompanied with falling affordability have been mainstays of independent school rhetoric in over the last five years, but one thing that has been constant is the birth rate. We have analysed the year on year change in the projected numbers of 0-4 year olds to 2037 and can see that although the birth rate has been increasing year on year, it appears this growth peaked in 2014., and whilst the numbers of 0-4s in total are continuing to increase, the rate of growth is reducing.

Current projections issued by the Office of National Statistics suggest the numbers of 0-4 year olds within England will continue to grow until 2021, although with a slight dip from 2016-17. The figures suggest there will be a return to growth in 2032-33. Over the period from 2012 to 2037, we expect there to be an increase in the number of 0-4 year olds of around 1.7%.

What about the regions?

Regionally the picture is somewhat different. East Anglia has experienced a declining birth rate since 2012-13 and is projected to experience the greatest decline of all the regions, with contraction of 0.61% from 2025-26 (0.61%), whilst the South West, somewhat surprisingly, shows minimal decline of only 0.06% from 2027-28, but otherwise will continue to see growth. London is not expected to have an easy time and will fare slightly worse than the South East.

What does this mean for independent schools?

First and foremost, the state-maintained sector is already creaking under the pressure, with no significant plans for investment in existing primary schools – it is hoped the Free School system will pick up this capacity. There is already evidence of dissatisfied parents making increased used of the independent sector.

Secondly, the market is project to grow to 2037, albeit it with a brief contraction from 2023-32. As such, business plans should be focussed on expansion, or risk losing market share. The positive economy, interest rate rise notwithstanding, coupled with decreased satisfaction with state schools should counter the effects of falling affordability in the short term at least, although all schools need to be mindful of big fee increases.

Thirdly, Free Schools need to be monitored. The biggest growth in Free Schools so far has been in areas where middle-class, educationally aware ‘aspirational’ parents predominate. This market makes up around 5% of independent school rolls at present – around 30,000 pupils – which is a small but not insignificant proportion.

Not all schools will be able to grow. Some already may be at the full capacity of their sites, whilst others may not wish to expand. As an alternative, these schools could perhaps consider raising the standards of their entrance criteria. Longer term, this should potentially lead to improved academic outcomes and therefore improved reputation.

The education market as a whole is changing, and independent schools need accurate and actionable data to ensure they are prepared for the future in order to remain profitable. Positive population projections should not be grounds for complacency, but do offer hope of a good future.